The 152nd Kentucky Derby| Selections Sat May 2,2026

The 152nd Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs | Louisville, Kentucky | Saturday, May 2, 2026

Post Time: 6:57 PM ET Race 12 | 1¼ Miles | Purse: $5,000,000

A full field of 24 three-year-olds will break from the gate at Churchill Downs this evening, each chasing history, a blanket of roses, and a $5 million purse.

Todd Pletcher looks to earn his first Kentucky Derby win in nine years with early favorite Renegade — who would be Pletcher’s 65th Kentucky Derby starter, the most in the race’s history. Further Ado, trained by Brad Cox, arrives off a dominant 11-length Blue Grass Stakes win with veteran John Velazquez in the irons, going for his fourth Derby victory.

Bob Baffert also saddles two horses — Potente and Litmus Test — as he chases a record seventh Kentucky Derby title, which would break his tie with Ben Jones.

Renegade drew the tough No. 1 post position. The last winner from the rail was Ferdinand all the way back in 1986.

It’s the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports. Let’s ride

This evenings selections are now posted and all picks have been made prior to any post time changes.

Selections are sponsored by ATBTICKETS.COM 

You name it we have it so check us out on the world wide web at ATBTICKETS

Here’s a quick rundown on all 24 horses:

#1 Renegade (4/1) Arkansas Derby winner who rallied 4-wide to win convincingly. Consistent 96-97 speed figures, trained by Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Legitimate contender but may need a perfect trip from post 1 in a 24-horse field.

#2 Albus (30/1) Surprise Wood Memorial winner at 12/1, rallying from last to first. Only four career starts, limited graded stakes experience. The form is intriguing but the class jump to the Derby is steep.

#3 Intrepido (50/1) Won the American Pharoah G1 at Santa Anita as a longshot, but flattened badly in the SA Derby most recently. Inconsistent effort profile makes him hard to trust at 1¼ miles.

#4 Litmus Test (50/1) Has a solid 102 career best figure but has been disappointing in 2026, finishing 7th in the Arkansas Derby. Baffert-trained but blinkers going back on suggest connections are searching for answers.

#5 Right to Party (30/1) Rallied nicely for second in the Wood Memorial but has never won a graded stakes. Needs a lot to go right from a deep trip style in a massive field.

#6 Commandment (6/1) One of the most complete résumés in the field — four wins from five starts, Florida Derby winner, sharp works at Payson Park. Brad Cox knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby and post 6 is workable.

#7 Danon Bourbon (20/1) Undefeated Japanese invader (3 for 3) who won the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan. Completely unknown quantities on American dirt — no US speed figures available and only one Churchill work logged. Fascinating but a massive unknown.

#8 So Happy (15/1) Santa Anita Derby winner with back-to-back strong efforts. Mike Smith stays aboard and trainer Mark Glatt’s recent jockey stats are excellent. Improving horse who beat Potente head-to-head — undervalued at morning line.

#9 The Puma (10/1) Won the Tampa Bay Derby and ran second in the Florida Derby behind Commandment. Consistent pace figures and Javier Castellano riding — legitimate mid-tier contender who could benefit from a hot pace scenario.

#10 Wonder Dean (30/1) Japanese invader who won the UAE Derby G2 in Dubai. Has raced globally but no US dirt figures to evaluate. Completely unknown on this surface, though the UAE Derby is a legitimate prep.

#11 Incredibolt (20/1) Won the Virginia Derby and owns two wins at Churchill Downs. Modest field strength in his prep races, but he’s been training sharply and the home track experience is a small positive. Unlikely to handle this class jump.

#12 Chief Wallabee (8/1) Ran third in the Florida Derby behind Commandment and The Puma — solid consistency but has yet to win at the graded stakes level. Adding blinkers for the first time is a wildcard. Could improve but needs to take that next step.

#13 Silent Tactic (20/1) Gutsy horse who has placed in four straight graded stakes including second in the Arkansas Derby. Never quite gets to the winner’s circle in big spots but keeps showing up — could sneak into the trifecta.

#14 Potente (20/1) Into Mischief colt who sold for $2.4 million as a yearling — the most expensive horse in the field. Baffert-trained, won the San Felipe and has been working lights-out at Santa Anita. His 20/1 morning line looks like a gift given his upside.

#15 Emerging Market (15/1) Undefeated in two starts including a Louisiana Derby G2 win, but has only two career races. Chad Brown is one of the best trainers in the country and the horse closed strongly at Fair Grounds. Inexperience is the concern at 1¼ miles.

#16 Pavlovian (30/1) Most experienced horse in the field with 10 career starts. Won the Sunland Derby and ran second in the Louisiana Derby. Grindy, honest type but lacks the elite speed figures needed to beat the top contenders.

#17 Six Speed (50/1) UAE-based shipper who won the UAE Two Thousand Guineas Trial. Has raced exclusively in Dubai — zero American dirt experience and no US figures. Pure wildcard entry.

#18 Further Ado (6/1) The top-rated horse in the field by Prime Power and speed figures. Blue Grass G1 winner by a wide margin, son of Gun Runner, trained by Brad Cox. If he runs back to his last effort, he wins this race. The horse to beat.

#19 Golden Tempo (30/1) Won the Lecomte G3 then ran third in the Louisiana Derby. Owned by Phipps Stable with Jose Ortiz up — solid connections but the horse hasn’t quite punched through at the highest level yet.

#20 Fulleffort (20/1) Interesting horse who has raced primarily on turf and all-weather before switching to dirt. Won the Jeff Ruby Steaks G3 on synthetic at Turfway. The all-weather to dirt switch is a major question mark, though Cox’s barn stats on that angle are strong.

#21 Great White (50/1) Cheap $55k purchase who has overachieved, winning on synthetic and running in the Blue Grass. Weakened badly late at Keeneland — the class and distance are both stretches too far.

#22 Ocelli (50/1) Bought for just $12,000 and has never won a stakes race. Ran third in the Wood Memorial which earns him a spot, but realistically he is a deep longshot with no realistic path to victory against this field.

#23 Robusta (50/1) Calumet Farm homebred who ran second in the San Felipe but folded badly in the SA Derby — that effort is very concerning. Lacks the consistency needed at this level.

#24 Corona de Oro (50/1) Ran third in the Lexington G3 after winning a maiden. Limited graded experience and a modest Prime Power rating of 131.8 — the lowest in the field among horses with US figures. Needs an extraordinary pace collapse to factor.

TOP 3 CONTENDERS

1. Further Ado (6/1, Post 18) — #1 Pick The highest Prime Power rating in the field (150.7) and the only horse to crack 105 on speed figures, coming off a dominant Blue Grass G1 win where he sat just off the pace and drew away by 11 lengths — the form, class, and pedigree (Gun Runner) all point here.

2. Commandment (6/1, Post 6) — #2 Pick Four wins from five starts with a 103 best speed figure, undefeated in 2026 including a Florida Derby G1 victory where he rallied from 5-6 wide — trainer Brad Cox and the sharp inside post are meaningful advantages in a big field.

3. Potente (20/1, Post 14) — #3 Pick Third-highest Prime Power (145.0), trained by Bob Baffert with an elite E/P running style, and his San Felipe win over So Happy looks better with each passing week — legitimately underbet at 20/1 given his connections and trajectory.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY: So Happy (15/1, Post 8)

So Happy deserves serious attention. He won the Santa Anita Derby G1 impressively, posting a 103 speed figure while beating Potente cleanly in a 3-wide rally. Trainer Mark Glatt has a scorching +3.84 ROI with jockey Mike Smith in the last 60 days, and Smith himself has proven he can get a horse to the wire at Churchill. The 15/1 morning line significantly underestimates a horse who has beaten a key Derby rival head-to-head, comes in on an upward speed figure trajectory (90 → 101 → 103), and whose works at Santa Anita have been consistently sharp. If the pace collapses early — very possible with several speed/pace horses in this large field — So Happy is the horse most likely to come flying late.