Current Las Vegas Lines (as of Jan. 17, 2026)

Last Meeting: Jan. 12, 2025 — Bills 31, Broncos 7

The Broncos enter the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time since 2015, but Sean Payton isn’t treating the bye week as a guarantee. Denver opens at home against a Buffalo team that just earned its first road playoff win since 1992, beating Jacksonville 27–24.

Josh Allen, battling multiple injuries, still produced 306 total yards and three touchdowns last week. He’s aiming for his third AFC Championship Game appearance, but the Bills’ receiver room is thin after losing Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis to ACL injuries. Buffalo activated Curtis Samuel and elevated Mecole Hardman Jr. to help alongside Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Brandin Cooks.

On defense, Ed Oliver returns from injury, while several others — including Greg Rousseau and Matt Milano — are cleared to play. Buffalo will be without CB Maxwell Hairston and S Jordan Poyer.

For Denver, Bo Nix gets his first home playoff start after struggling in last year’s loss to Buffalo. He’ll be supported by a Broncos defense that set a franchise record with 68 sacks, the most in the league by a wide margin.

Denver is mostly healthy, with only two players still on IR. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw carries no injury designation.

Historically, the Bills have won four of the last five meetings and both postseason matchups, including the 1991 AFC Championship Game.

Why this matters: A full 3‑point swing across zero (Bills ‑1.5 → Broncos ‑1.5) is one of the clearest indicators of sharp action, not public money. Public bettors rarely move a playoff line this dramatically.

Sharp Betting Consensus Breakdown

1. Sharp Side: Denver Broncos

• Early Denver money drove the flip from Bills ‑2 to pick’em to Broncos ‑1.5.
• Books reported “early Denver money” and reluctance to move Buffalo back to favorite status.
• Denver’s rest advantage, home altitude, and elite pass rush (68 sacks) match up well vs. a banged‑up Josh Allen.

2. Public Side: Buffalo Bills

• Bills have the better QB and just won a dramatic road playoff game.
• Public bettors overwhelmingly prefer Buffalo (70%+ tickets on Bills spread & ML).
• But public money did not move the line — sharps did.

3. Total: Under Lean

• Denver is 7‑10 to the Under this season.
• Buffalo’s WR injuries + Denver’s pass rush = fewer explosive plays.
• Sharps hit the Under early (46.5 → 45.5).

Matchup Reorganized With Betting Lens

Quarterback Edge: Buffalo (Public Side)

• Josh Allen: 306 total yards, 3 TDs last week.
• But he’s playing through foot, head, hand, and knee injuries.
• WR room depleted (Shavers & Davis torn ACLs).

Defense Edge: Denver (Sharp Side)

• 68 sacks, most in the NFL by 11.
• At home, rested, and built to pressure mobile QBs.
• Buffalo missing Poyer & Hairston in secondary.

Situational Edge: Denver

• No. 1 seed off a bye.
• Home altitude advantage.
• Bills coming off emotional road win + travel + injuries.

Historical Edge: Buffalo

• Bills have won 4 of last 5 vs Denver.
• Dominated last postseason meeting 31‑7.

Sharp Consensus Prediction (Best Outcome)

➡️ Broncos 24, Bills 20

Recommended sharp-aligned positions:

• Broncos ‑1.5 (sharp side)
• Under 46.5 (injuries + Denver pass rush + altitude fatigue)
• Broncos ML if you want reduced variance