After a big weekend of stakes racing that included Mohawk Million Saturday, Woodbine Mohawk Park returns to a regular Monday ten-race card. The night is built for multi-race bettors: a $75,000 guaranteed Early Pick 5 starts in Race 1, a Pick 4 begins in Race 3, and there is a 20-cent Pick 6 from Race 4. A late Pick 5 opens in Race 6, a late Pick 4 in Race 7, and the Jackpot Hi-5 closes the card in Race 10.
The Feature: Race 9, $150,000 Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Leg 5
The night’s headliner is Gold Leg 5 for three-year-old pacing colts and geldings, a full field of ten going a mile for $150,000. With the Gold series winding down, it is a chance for the province’s best sophomore pacers to add to their season earnings.
The headliner: #4 Beau Jangles (ML 2-5, PP4, James Macdonald, trainer Dr. Ian Moore). He is the clear 2-5 morning line favourite. He was a perfect 12-for-12 at two, holds the Mohawk two-year-old male pacing record of 1:48.3, and has banked over $2 million in his career. This year he has won 4 of 11 and hit the board in seven, including a 1:47.1 third in the Simcoe Stakes on September 12. Macdonald is the track’s leading driver by wins, and Moore wins 28% of the time.
The main challenger: #3 Borderline Mobby (ML 5-2, PP3, Louis-Philippe Roy, trainer David Menary). He is the only other horse with real Gold-level credentials, with a 1:48.1 lifetime mark and $236,053 earned this season. He has won and hit the board in the Gold series against this same rival. His last start was a ninth-place finish against older horses, which looks like a tightener. Menary wins 24% of the time, and Roy wins 25% of the time with Menary.
The rest of the field: The remaining eight all go off at double-digit morning line odds.
- #2 Dax Seelster (15-1, PP2, Doug McNair) is a $473K yearling purchase.
- #8 Windor (20-1, PP8) earned over $220,000 last year and is now driven by trainer Michiel Vanderkemp.
- #7 Dr Dave (20-1, PP7, Tyler Jones) and #6 Cabo San Lucas (20-1, PP6, Jody Jamieson) are others who could fill out the exotics at a price.
- #1 Mega Moves, #5 Plankton Hanover, #9 Docs Moreau and #10 Lunar Sport complete the field.
Post position: Post 4 has won 12.5% of pace races at Mohawk this year, a solid but not top-tier spot. Posts 5 and 6 have been the strongest at 18.6% and 21.3%, which helps the two 20-1 shots drawn there.
Betting angle: With a 2-5 favourite, the win pool won’t offer much value on top, so the payoffs will come from exacta, trifecta and superfecta combinations. The late Daily Double (Races 9 and 10) and the Pick 3 (Races 8, 9 and 10) are also available.
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RACE 1: 2YO Colts & Geldings Pace (Early Pick 5 leg)
- #5 TIDAL SEELSTER (ML 7-2, PP5, T Cullen): Raced only a week ago against much stronger Sires Stakes company, drops into maiden company, and gets the second-best winning post (18.6%).
- #6 THE DANCING KING (ML 8-1, PP6, S Young): The only maiden-level horse here with a recent win (at Hanover), and he draws the best-percentage post (21.3%) with a 27% Merner/Young-type driver-trainer edge.
- #7 KERPLUNK (ML 5-2, PP7, Trevor Henry): Has by far the most class after facing Grade 3 stakes, but the 16-day gap and two maiden thirds without a win keep him third.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #2 IBELIEVEINMIRACLES (ML 10-1, PP2, Travis Henry). He has 7 starts with a win and a 2nd on his record, raced steadily every 1-2 weeks and is the type to hit the board at a big price from an inside post.
RACE 2: Fillies & Mares $20,000 Conditioned Claimer
- #6 HALF FAST (ML 7-2, PP6, T Cullen): She has won 4 of her last 6 including a 1:52.2 mile on September 14, owns the fastest times here, and starts from the top-percentage post.
- #1 THE LIES WE TELL (ML 3-1, PP1, J Drury): Has won or placed in four of her last five, including a 1:53.0 third here last week, and always shows up in this class.
- #7 PLAY DATE (ML 4-1, PP7, S Young): Has hit the board in three of her last four with closing kicks, and Merner is 11% on 45 drives with Young.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #3 LADY CENTURY (ML 8-1, PP3, B McClure). She won this same claiming class on August 13, was third here on September 14, and the McClure/Giles combo hits 30% with a $2.69 ROI.
RACE 3: Horses & Geldings $20,000 Conditioned Claimer (Pick 4 opening leg)
- #7 SAULSBROOK RODEO (ML 7-2, PP7, J Ryan): Four wins and a dead-heat this year, coming off a strong 1:52.0 second at Mohawk against Sires Stakes-type company (14 days back) and dropping to a claimer.
- #6 IMACUTELILSTALKER (ML 9-2, PP6, Ma Macdonald): Races every one to two weeks, won at Grand River on August 26, and gets the best-percentage post (21.3%) to work out a trip.
- #8 SAULSBROOK GUNNER (ML 6-1, PP8, Ja Macdonald): Finished ahead of D A Super Glo in two straight starts in this class, and the Macdonald/Merner pairing wins 28% (87 drives), though post 8 is a drawback.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #5 RED HOT POWERPLAY (ML 8-1, PP5, J Plante). He has 3 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds in 20 starts, races weekly and gets the second-best post here, so he can sneak into the exotics at a price.
RACE 4: 4YO & Younger Pace, NW1 Race or $10,000 Lifetime (Pick 6 opener)
- #4 BETTORS MYSTERY (ML 8-1, PP4, Ma Macdonald): Has run in the money or close up in this same Mohawk class repeatedly (1:52.2 and 1:53.2 miles) from a solid post.
- #6 BETTER SCRIPT (ML 5-1, PP6, T Cullen): Raced every start recently against this field, has the best-percentage post, and should get a cleaner start than last week.
- #8 TWIN B LOUBORGHINI (ML 6-1, PP8, B McClure): Won at Flamboro on September 17 and has hit the board three times in six starts, and McClure/Steacy wins 17% with a $3.18 ROI, though the outside post limits him.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #10 JAKOBY J (ML 10-1, PP10, Trevor Henry). He finished 1st, 2nd and 2nd in his last three at Grand River and has never been far off when rated properly, though the outside post is a real hurdle.
RACE 5: Trot, 5YO & Younger NW3 Races or $50,000 Lifetime
- #8 IMPERATIVE (ML 3-1, PP8, L-P Roy): Beaten only by a neck in this class last week at 1:53.2 after winning the level below, and Roy wins 24% for Meg Crone with a $3.43 ROI.
- #6 PATS QUEEN (ML 8-1, PP6, T Ratchford): Four wins this season including a September 10 score, and she has the best post on the trot (22.0%).
- #5 SOUTHERN COWBOY (ML 6-1, PP5, A Sorrie): Has been on the board in most starts (3-4-3 in 18) against this level, and the fifth post is a good one on the trot.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #2 FRENCHMONI HANOVER (ML 10-1, PP2, Trevor Henry). She has six thirds and a September 10 second this year, and she gets an inside post in a race that lacks a dominant favourite.
RACE 6: Pace $20,000 Claimer (Late Pick 5 opener)
- #4 CATITUDE (ML 5-1, PP4, D McNair): Won last week in this class, races every week, and the McNair/Holland combo wins 28% with a $3.09 ROI.
- #8 IDIDITMYSHUI (ML 3-1, PP8, Ja Macdonald): Finished second back-to-back at 1:52.0 and 1:52.1, now races for a leading trainer (Merner) off the claim, but the class rise and outside post keep him second.
- #7 THEJACKOFDIAMONDS (ML 8-1, PP7, T Borth): Was a close second in this class last week at 1:53.1 and should get a similar pocket or following trip.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #5 JIMMY WHISPERS (ML 10-1, PP5, L-P Roy). He was second at Flamboro on September 17, won at Grand River on August 31, and starts from the second-best post with a driver who wins 17%.
RACE 7: Trot, NW $1,000 Last 4 Starts (Late Pick 4 opener)
- #6 SHAMPOO GIRL (ML 3-1, PP6, J Ryan): Won two of her last six, has raced every week, and drops in class from a tougher NW3 race while drawing the best post on the trot.
- #7 TALK SHOW HOST (ML 5-1, PP7, A Sorrie): Raced in this exact class twice recently, finishing third at 1:56.3 last time, and gets a better post than last week.
- #1 INSANITY (ML 9-2, PP1, B McClure): Has hit the board several times this year and has the trainer edge (Hollingsworth 22.5%), though he has been tepid lately.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #3 MAGIC LIAM (ML 10-1, PP3, J Jamieson). He is a 3-year-old with two wins and three seconds this year in stakes company, and dropping to this bottom conditioned level from an inside post makes him a live price.
RACE 8: 3YO Colts & Geldings Pace, Grassroots/Prospect NW $15,000 Last 4
- #6 OUTRUN THE ODDS (ML 5-1, PP6, Ma Macdonald): Three consecutive wins including a 1:51.4 score here on September 14, plus nine wins this season, and he draws the best post (21.3%).
- #4 RUN TO THE HILLS (ML 3-1, PP4, J Plante): Back-to-back wins and has shown he belongs at this level with a 1:50.4 mile at Mohawk, and post 4 gives him tactical options.
- #5 P L TACO (ML 7-2, PP5, T Cullen): Races weekly against Sires Stakes and stakes company (1:49.4 to 1:51.2 miles), so this looks like a class drop from a good post.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #8 SOUTHERN JAZZ (ML 6-1, PP8, T Jones). He won wire-to-wire here last week at 1:52.4 as a favourite and is overlooked with a tough post, while the Jones/Jones combo wins 11% with a $1.22 ROI.
RACE 9: Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Leg 5, 3YO Pace ($150,000)
- #4 BEAU JANGLES (ML 2-5, PP4, Ja Macdonald): Has the fastest resume here (1:47.1 in September and a Grand Circuit-level record) and the Macdonald/Moore duo wins 33%, so he is the most likely winner even at short odds.
- #3 BORDERLINE MOBBY (ML 5-2, PP3, L-P Roy): The only rival with comparable Gold-level credentials (1:48.2 wins and seconds), and Roy/Menary wins 25% on 160 starts, so he is the logical runner-up.
- #7 DR DAVE (ML 20-1, PP7, T Jones): Coming off a 1:51.2 closing fifth in a very good Grassroots race, and the Jones/Dumouchel combo has a $3.90 ROI.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #6 CABO SAN LUCAS (ML 20-1, PP6, J Jamieson). He gets the best-percentage post (21.3%), raced weekly with a 1:52.2 fourth on September 14, and is a candidate to fill out the bottom of the exotics at a huge price.
RACE 10: Trot, 4YO & Younger NW2 (FM3) Races (Jackpot Hi-5)
- #2 EMERALD ISLAND (ML 4-1, PP2, J Plante): Has hit the board in all five starts this season (2-2-1) at this level and was second here 14 days ago at 1:55.0.
- #7 WILD ROSE HANOVER (ML 5-1, PP7, Ma Macdonald): Won this class on September 14 and has raced every single week, and Mark Macdonald has been steady on her.
- #3 BROADWAY STAR (ML 10-1, PP3, D McNair): Won a NW1 here 11 days ago in 1:54.4 at short odds and has a workable inside post at a long price.
LONGSHOT VALUE: #4 MIGHTY MORGAN (ML 15-1, PP4, Ja Macdonald). She has hit the board in seven of eight starts this year, was second in a NW2 at Flamboro, and gets a leading driver in a race that has no standout.