December 7, 2022

Over Thinking in Sports Handicapping

3 min read

Images can make or break an argument much faster than pages of words can do at time.  The graphic above features two good separate advances in warfare that allowed the yielder to triumph easily over the opposition.  Horses lead to calvary and reinvented the art of war.  A machine gun allowed a few people to sew carnage on the battle field.  So some Einstein came up with the idea of combining the two.  Does it even look like it has a chance of success?  Alas many minds in sports handicapping get so wrapped up in their own theories that they morph them together to a creation that limps along.  Others can see it but we have large blind spots when it comes to our own money.

NFL Consensus Takes a Tumble

Well the consensus finally ran into a snag.  Las Vegas Raiders were the road favorite against  Atlanta Falcons but the Falcons ended up handing the Raiders a economy fare back to Las VEgas faster than you can say Boo.  This puts our total at 4-1 +$200 +2.0 Units. This weekends consensus for Day 6 rings in as Tenn Titans (-5.5) as a home favorite versus the Cleveland Browns .  That being said it also comes in at the best price seen which is -210 on the Money Line and it does go as high as -250 in some shops.Let us hope that the depth of the Titans playing at home will wear down the over-rated Cleveland Browns.

Mismanaging Marginal Plays Into Leans

This is where taking wagers that are maybes and talking yourself into thinking they are world beaters.  Say you want to wager the game on the night on ESPN.  Give a little juice to the action on the television.  So one team you think is better but you are not sure about.  $20.00 sure but nothing more.  You go on your stats sites and start hunting for information to bolster your opinion.  Before you are ATS records that go back three years that validate your point.  Their are other ones that say the opposite as well but you dismiss them as not being “pertinent.”  By desiring to be correct, you take the stats that lean your way and junk the rest.  Now your $20.00 wagers balloons into $75.00 as you put down a $55.00 additional bet later.  By combining what you want to fit and ignoring the rest, you soon have the calvary with a machine gun mounted on it.  How do you think your bankroll will progress with many of these bets added to your arsenal? Remember to just make it easy on yourself. Over thinking can get you into sticky situations quite often. While an occasional lean is prudent, patience for the long haul is winning.  What else is winning is to go with books that offer you more bang with your buck.  America’s Bookie is one of those upper echelon companies that realize the importance of customer loyalty.  With some of the best promotions in the biz, you can stay in the game longer when you opt to deploy some of those machine gun wielding horses in your future.

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