October 4, 2023

The TaxAct Texas Bow| Prediction & Pick Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss Dec 28th,2022

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The Ole Miss Rebels will play the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Taxact Texas Bowl.

Wednesday, December 28, 2022; 8:00 p.m. CT; NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas

TV: ESPN (Roy Philpott, Andre Ware, Paul Calcaterra)

Radio: Texas Tech Sports Network (Brian Jensen, John Harris, Chris Level)

Records: Texas Tech (7-5, 5-4 Big 12); Ole Miss (8-4, 4-4 SEC)

Last Week: Texas Tech 51, Oklahoma 48; Ole Miss 22, Mississippi State 24

Series History: Ole Miss leads 4-2

Last Meeting: Ole Miss 47, Texas Tech 27 (2018)

Favorite: Ole Miss (-3.5)

It’s a Big 12 vs SEC match-up in the TaxAct Texas Bowl between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Ole Miss Rebels. While their records are nearly the same, these two teams have been trending in opposite directions. Texas Tech has won its last three games while Ole Miss has lost their last three.

Texas Tech is 7-5-0 against the spread this season. Texas Tech has an ATS record of 3-3 when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs. This year, seven Texas Tech games have gone over the point total. The Red Raiders have been underdogs in seven games this season and won three (42.9%) of those contests.

Quarterback Donovan Smith has found his groove to end the season. He finished the regular season with 1505 total passing yards with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions. If Smith can cash in more with touchdowns, Texas Tech can put a ton of pressure on Ole Miss at NRG Stadium.

Ole Miss has gone 4-7-1 against the spread this season. In games it is played as 3.5-point favorites or more, Ole Miss has an ATS record of 3-4. Games involving Ole Miss have hit the over six times this season. The Rebels have gone 8-2 in games they were listed as the money line favorite (winning 80% of those games)

NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a game where they gained 450 yards or more.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of The Red Raiders last 9 games on turf.
Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in The Rebels last 5 bowl games.
The total has gone OVER in these teams last 4 matchups against one another.

In our opinion, this game is a complete coin flip, as Texas Tech was playing better to end the season but in our opinion they over achieved. Ole miss started off the season 7-0 but had a soft schedule to kick around their early opponents.

Pick: Ole Miss -3.5

Small lean: OVER 70.0 Points

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