Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – Preseason Finale Preview

Highmark Stadium – 7:00 PM ET Current Las Vegas Line: Bills -3, Total 35.5

Game Overview

Buffalo enters the preseason finale undefeated and with strong depth performances across the roster. Pittsburgh arrives off a shutout loss and will rely entirely on backup quarterbacks. This is the first night game at the new Highmark Stadium, adding a strong home‑field boost.

Buffalo has the deeper QB rotation, the stronger preseason form, and the more stable coaching situation entering the finale. Pittsburgh’s offense has shown no rhythm with its backup quarterbacks, and the matchup leans heavily toward Buffalo’s depth and continuity.

Starting Quarterbacks & Rotations

Buffalo Bills QB Plan

• Josh Allen – OUT (rest, no preseason snaps this year)

• Kyle Allen – Expected to start the game

• Matt Barkley – Second quarter / early third

• Shane Buechele – Late third into fourth

Buffalo’s rotation is experienced, with three quarterbacks who have NFL starts or extended preseason reps. This matters in a finale where timing and protection often break down.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Plan

• Aaron Rodgers – OUT (no preseason snaps, age 42, final season)

• Mason Rudolph – Expected to sit

• Will Howard – Likely starter

• Drew Allar – Second half

Pittsburgh is rolling with two inexperienced QBs, both coming off a shutout performance last week.

Preseason Performance & Trends

Buffalo Bills

• 2–0 ATS, 2–0 SU

• +34 point differential (best in the NFL this preseason)

• 31 points scored last week without Josh Allen

• Allowed only 14 total points in two games

Trend: Buffalo has covered five straight preseason games dating back to 2025.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• 1–1 SU, 0–2 ATS

• Shut out 17–0 last week

• Backup QBs averaging only 4.1 yards per pass attempt

• Offensive line has allowed 7 sacks in two games

Trend: Pittsburgh has failed to cover four straight preseason road games.

Situational Factors

Home‑Field Boost

This is the first night game at the new Highmark Stadium, and Buffalo has been treating it like a showcase event. Preseason home crowds don’t always matter — but new stadium energy absolutely does.

Coaching Stability

• Joe Brady (Bills): First preseason as HC, but the offense has looked organized, fast, and physical.

• Mike McCarthy (Steelers): First preseason with a new roster and new offensive system. The execution has been inconsistent.

Depth Advantage

Buffalo’s second‑ and third‑string units have been dominant, especially in the trenches. Pittsburgh’s depth has been below league average, especially on offense.

Historical Trends Between These Teams

Even though preseason matchups vary year to year, the Bills have won four straight preseason meetings with Pittsburgh dating back to 2018.

Average margin in those games: Bills +11.2

Buffalo’s backups have consistently outperformed Pittsburgh’s in August.

Matchup Keys

1. Bills Run Game vs. Steelers Front

Buffalo has averaged 5.3 yards per carry this preseason. Pittsburgh has allowed 4.9 yards per carry and struggled with gap discipline.

2. QB Efficiency

Buffalo backup QBs: 68% completion, 5 TD, 1 INT Pittsburgh backup QBs: 54% completion, 0 TD, 2 INT

3. Red Zone Execution

Bills: 6-for-8 Steelers: 0-for-4

Total Analysis (35.5)

The number is tight. Pittsburgh’s offense is unreliable, but Buffalo’s depth can score. The Bills have scored 27+ in four straight preseason games, which pushes this game toward the Over, but Pittsburgh’s offense is such a wild card that the total is less predictable than the side.

Final Prediction 

Buffalo Bills -3

Buffalo has the better depth, the better QB rotation, the better preseason form, and the stronger situational edge. Pittsburgh’s offense has shown nothing to suggest they can keep pace.

Projected Score:

Bills 24, Steelers 13

Buffalo covers comfortably, and the game leans slightly Over but not enough for a confident total play.