July 13, 2024

NFL Week 1 Trends|What you should know before betting.

2 min read

In Week 1, the largest spread is showing the Baltimore Ravens as a 10-point pick over the Houston Texans. Last season, the Texans were a double-digit underdog five times. Houston was 4-1 ATS in those games.

Betting against the losing team in last year’s Super Bowl is also sound strategy in Week 1 NFL betting trends. Over the past 23 seasons, the losing finalist in the Super Bowl is 4-19 ATS when debuting the following season. Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals lost 23-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 6.5-point home favorites.

This season, the Philadelphia Eagles, losers to the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, are the 4-point road chalk at the New England Patriots.

Last year, road teams were 9-6-1 straight up in Week 1 action. Underdogs were 6-9-1 SU and 8-8 ATS. Away favorites were 3-6-1 SU and 5-5 ATS . Away underdogs were 3-3 both SU and ATS. According to research compiled by FOX Sports, since 2000, underdogs are 183-163-14 (53%) ATS in Week 1.

Sunday Week #1
Raiders at Broncos (-3½, 44½): The Raiders have won the last six meetings with Denver and are riding a 10-0-1 streak against the spread against the Broncos. However, the Raiders are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have gone under.

Bengals (-2½, 48) at Browns: These teams have split their last four meetings straight-up and ATS. The Bengals are on a 14-3 cover streak away from home. Cincinnati also is riding a 16-7-1 under run.

Buccaneers at Vikings (-6, 45½): The Buccaneers went 5-13 ATS last season and went under in 12 of 18 games. The Vikings had a 12-6 over mark last season and have gone over in 26 of their past 38 games overall. Minnesota went 3-6 ATS at home last season.

Rams at Seahawks (-5½, 46): The Rams went 6-11 ATS last season, but have covered five straight and seven of their last eight in this NFC West series. The Seahawks ended last season on a 1-8 spread skid. Six of the last eight meetings have gone under.

Cowboys (-3½, 46½) at Giants: New York was 6-3 ATS at home last season, but Dallas has won and covered the last four meetings with the Giants and 11 of the last 12. Seven of the last nine meetings have gone over.

Monday

Bills (-2½, 46) at Jets: The Jets reversed recent series trends by covering both meetings with the Bills last season, though New York is on a 5-9 ATS skid at home. Four of the last five meetings have gone under, and the Jets are on a 12-6 under run overall. The Bills closed last season on a 4-8 spread slide and had an 11-7 under mark. 

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