Woodbine Mohawk Park — Saturday, September 5, 2026

Big-time card alert. 13 races, three stakes headliners — the Maple Leaf Trot (G1), Canadian Pacing Derby (G1), and the Milton Stakes — plus a deep undercard of conditioned and claiming events.

The storyline tonight: class droppers and fresh-off-the-qualifier types colliding all card long. Watch the early Pick 5 — Races 1-5 are wide open with several first-off-the-claim runners who could spring mild upsets at 8/1-plus.

My early leans: the chalk is beatable in at least three races tonight, and there’s one big-price longshot I love on the late Pick 4 — full breakdown in my picks below.

Post time 7:00 PM. Get your programs ready.

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Race 1 — Pop Up Series Final, Pace, $40,000

Post 4 Dad (3-1) · Post 9 Jk Black Gold (4-1) · Post 6 Captain Hurley (5-1)

1. 1. Dad (Post 4, 3-1) — Owns the single best driver/trainer efficiency number in the field (38% win, $2.08 ROI with L Roy/Dr I Moore) and has finished 1st-2nd in his last two Pop Up legs at this exact level.
2. 2. Jk Black Gold (Post 9, 4-1) — Comes off a career-best win with a 27-flat closing kick under a fresh driver switch to red-hot Doug McNair, and this pairing’s 43% win rate is tops in the race even with a wide post to overcome.
3. 3. Captain Hurley (Post 6, 5-1) — Draws the field’s statistically best post at this track (post 6 wins 21.9% of races this meet) and has hit the board in each of his last two Pop Up starts, including a rallying win.

Longshot value: P L Oliver (Post 5, 8-1) — Two wins in his last six starts and a driver upgrade to Yannick Gingras from a good post; a real price at 8-1 given the underlying form.

Race 2 — Simcoe (Gr.3), Trot, $140,000

Post 1 Mothers Moni (7-5) · Post 3 Touchedbyanangel (5-1) · Post 2 Dream For Peace (10-1)

1. 1. Mothers Moni (Post 1, 7-5) — Ships in off the fastest mile in the field (1:52 flat on Hambletonian Day) and is unbeaten or in-the-money in nearly every recent start against similar-level company.
2. 2. Touchedbyanangel (Post 3, 5-1) — Carries the best driver/trainer win rate in the race (29%), has raced actively every week with no red flags, and his only recent miss came from being interfered with by a rival, not his own fault.
3. 3. Dream For Peace (Post 2, 10-1) — Beat this exact class of trotter two starts back in a Gold-level event and should bounce back in a small, beatable field.

Longshot value: Captain Nathan (Post 4, 10-1) — A strong 33% driver/trainer win rate, but he’s coming off a qualifier and a real gap between starts, so treat this as a price play only, not a top-3 confidence pick.

Race 3 — Pace, NW $13,500L4/$24,000L8, $28,000

Post 1 D A Lets Boogie (6-1) · Post 6 Dalton Shard N (7-2) · Post 3 Cold Creek Queso (5-1)

1. 1. D A Lets Boogie (Post 1, 6-1) — Has won five of his last six starts and lowered his lifetime mark to 1:49 4/5 doing it, dropping into a very winnable class tonight after one loss in a tougher final.
2. 2. Dalton Shard N (Post 6, 7-2) — Draws the meet’s best-performing post (21.9% win rate) with a driver upgrade to Yannick Gingras and has shown a repeated hard closing kick in his last several starts.
3. 3. Cold Creek Queso (Post 3, 5-1) — Boasts the single best driver/trainer efficiency figure in the field (30% win, $6.06 ROI) plus a fresh, positive driver change tonight.

Longshot value: Convoy Twenty Two (Post 9, 15-1) — Four wins in nineteen starts this year with a recent victory just three weeks ago, offering real value at a big number.

Race 4 — Open Trot, $60,000

Post 9 Logan Park (5-2) · Post 6 Major Velocity (8-1) · Post 3 Monserrate (3-1)

1. 1. Logan Park (Post 9, 5-2) — Has won four of his last six starts at this class level (his only bad race came against elite Grand Circuit trotters), and pairs an elite 29% driver/trainer win rate with a proven front-running style.
2. 2. Major Velocity (Post 6, 8-1) — Draws the single best-performing post at this track for trotters (22.3% win rate) and has two wins from his last six starts with consistent placings.
3. 3. Monserrate (Post 3, 3-1) — A legitimate multi-hundred-thousand-dollar trotter dropping into beatable open company, and he closed well behind a much tougher field last week.

Longshot value: What About Elmo (Post 4, 15-1) — Two wins in his last six starts with the best-value driver/trainer efficiency number in the field (22% win, $2.03 ROI), in a race where several rivals carry real red flags (driver switches, layoffs, qualifier-heavy patterns).

Race 5 — Milton Stakes Final (Gr.2), F&M Pace, $255,000

Post 6 Francent N (7-5) · Post 9 Twin B Joe Fresh (5-2) · Post 2 Absolution (20-1)

1. 1. Francent N (Post 6, 7-5) — Just defeated this exact field last week in the elimination while lowering her lifetime mark to a career-best 1:48 1/5, the strongest recent form of anyone here.
2. 2. Twin B Joe Fresh (Post 9, 5-2) — Carries a 50% driver/trainer win rate with elite driver Dexter Dunn and is the highest-class mare in the field even after finishing behind Francent N last week.
3. 3. Absolution (Post 2, 20-1) — Has won four of her last six starts and was drawn into a brutal outside post last week; she’s simply been the most dominant filly at this level all summer when given a fair trip.

Longshot value: Louies Girl N (Post 3, 8-1) — A proven Grade 1 winner who’s hit the board in five of her last six starts and was boxed for room in the stretch last week; if she gets clear sailing this time she’s fast enough to factor.

Race 6 — OSS Gold Leg 4, 2YO Colt Pace, $100,000

Post 3 Gogo Gadget (7-5) · Post 6 D A Alljokesaside (3-1) · Post 1 Th Benedict (5-1)

1. 1. Gogo Gadget (Post 3, 7-5) — Four wins from six lifetime starts and the fastest colt on paper, now adding Lasix which should fix the one late fade he’s shown.
2. 2. D A Alljokesaside (Post 6, 3-1) — Draws the meet’s best pace post with the strongest driver/trainer efficiency figure of anyone in the field (33% win, $4.72 ROI), improving fast after overcoming traffic trouble on debut.
3. 3. Th Benedict (Post 1, 5-1) — Took the toughest possible assignment last week racing first-over against the top sophomore in Ontario and still hit the board; drops into an easier spot tonight.

Longshot value: Kerplunk (Post 5, 10-1) — Still hunting his first win, but he paced the fastest closing back-half of anyone in the field last week despite getting stuck in traffic — a clean trip changes everything.

Race 7 — Open Pace, $60,000

Post 7 Delray Beach (8-1) · Post 3 Sugar Man (9-2) · Post 1 Dont Drop The Ball (6-1)

1. 1. Delray Beach (Post 7, 8-1) — Three wins in his last six starts, including two dominant front-end scores, backed by the single best driver/trainer efficiency figure in the race.
2. 2. Sugar Man (Post 3, 9-2) — Three wins in his last six with the meet’s hottest driver, Doug McNair, in the bike and a driver/trainer combo winning over 40% together.
3. 3. Dont Drop The Ball (Post 1, 6-1) — Lowered his career-best time to 1:47 3/5 two starts back and gets favorable class and post spots tonight after a gritty runner-up finish last week.

Longshot value: Vandiemen Bluechip (Post 4, 15-1) — Three wins in his last six starts and a fresh career-best mile last week, now picking up a driver upgrade to Yannick Gingras at a huge price.

Race 8 — Maple Leaf Trot Final (Gr.1), $620,000

Post 2 Super Chapter (6-5) · Post 3 Emoticon Legacy (5-2) · Post 6 French Wine (5-1)

1. 1. Super Chapter (Post 2, 6-5) — Four wins in six starts this year with an elite 38% driver/trainer win rate, and he was the clear best horse in last week’s dominant elimination win.
2. 2. Emoticon Legacy (Post 3, 5-2) — Hasn’t missed the board in a single 2026 start (5-for-5) and is visibly finding his top gear later in the season.
3. 3. French Wine (Post 6, 5-1) — Has already beaten this exact field for a major title on this track, and he exploded off the cover for his sharpest effort of the year in last week’s elimination.

Longshot value: Antognoni S (Post 10, 15-1) — Despite drawing the worst post statistically in the field, he carries a phenomenal underlying win percentage and just needs a clean lane to be part of the finish.

Race 9 — OSS Gold Leg 4, 2YO Filly Pace, $150,000

Post 7 Waves Of Fortune (3-1) · Post 2 Twin B Copacabana (7-2) · Post 1 Money Carlo (9-2)

1. 1. Waves Of Fortune (Post 7, 3-1) — Three straight decisive wins, including a runaway victory last week even from the widest post, making her the clear fastest filly here right now.
2. 2. Twin B Copacabana (Post 2, 7-2) — Just out-battled this exact field for the win in last week’s Grade 3, taking three of her last four starts.
3. 3. Money Carlo (Post 1, 9-2) — Has finished no worse than second in four of her last five real starts under a sharp barn with a hot driver pairing.

Longshot value: Charolais Cattle (Post 6, 15-1) — Carries the day’s hottest driver in Dexter Dunn plus a 57% combo win rate, and she’s shown a real closing kick that could catch this speed-heavy field late.

Race 10 — Canadian Pacing Derby Final (Gr.1), $705,000

Post 6 Prince Hal Hanover (4-1) · Post 4 Best Chip (9-2) · Post 5 For Once Inmy Life (7-2)

1. 1. Prince Hal Hanover (Post 6, 4-1) — Has hit the board in all thirteen starts this season, drew the field’s statistically best post, and won his elimination outright showing real fighting courage in deep stretch.
2. 2. Best Chip (Post 4, 9-2) — Has won seven of thirteen starts this year and produced the fastest closing effort of anyone behind the winner in last week’s elimination.
3. 3. For Once Inmy Life (Post 5, 7-2) — Won his own elimination heat cleanly with a perfect ground-saving trip and carries a spectacular overall win percentage into the final.

Longshot value: Ayeaye Captain Deo (Post 7, 15-1) — Connections paid a $40,000 supplement to get him into this final; he’s a pure deep-closer who’s been passing horses late all year, tailor-made if the pace up front gets hot.

Race 11 — OSS Gold Leg 4, 2YO Colt Pace, $100,000

Post 2 Atlas Ross (7-5) · Post 1 Cattletracks (5-2) · Post 6 Big D Energy (3-1)

1. 1. Atlas Ross (Post 2, 7-5) — A perfect 4-for-4 in real races with the meet’s hottest driver aboard, advancing from Grassroots to Gold company without missing a beat.
2. 2. Cattletracks (Post 1, 5-2) — Two straight front-end wins moving up in class, backed by an outstanding driver/trainer efficiency number and a red-hot barn.
3. 3. Big D Energy (Post 6, 3-1) — Draws the field’s statistically best post and already ran competitively with the top sophomore colt in the province last week, needing only a cleaner trip to break through.

Longshot value: Yes I Am Hanover (Post 3, 6-1) — Held his own against much tougher stakes company than tonight’s field and drops into an easier spot, offering real value despite a minor driver downgrade.

Race 12 — Pop Up Series Consolation, $30,000

Post 6 Boothill Hudy (3-1) · Post 5 Odds On Valhalla (7-2) · Post 1 Livinthebeachlife (5-1)

1. 1. Boothill Hudy (Post 6, 3-1) — Closed for third last week ahead of the field’s other top closer, has two wins in his last six starts including a career-best time, and draws a workable middle post.
2. 2. Odds On Valhalla (Post 5, 7-2) — Was genuinely blocked and boxed in the stretch last week despite having the best closing pace on paper, and now gets a fair post to show it.
3. 3. Livinthebeachlife (Post 1, 5-1) — Was hurt by two straight wide posts and now draws the rail, the exact post from which he nearly won three starts back.

Longshot value: Thai Tour (Post 9, 10-1) — Carries the strongest driver/trainer efficiency figure in this field and has been competitive in every recent start without ever getting the perfect setup to finally break through.

Race 13 — Pace, NW $9,000L4/$18,000L8, $24,000

Post 4 Dublin Dasher (6-1) · Post 6 Rbstenacious T (10-1) · Post 5 Uncle Shank A (3-1)

1. 1. Dublin Dasher (Post 4, 6-1) — Was given a genuinely impossible post and trip last week in a 12-horse field, and returns to the same beatable level from a far better draw with a recent win on his page.
2. 2. Rbstenacious T (Post 6, 10-1) — Drops back in class after three tough tries against much better foes, and his outstanding career win rate suggests he’s been overmatched lately rather than declining.
3. 3. Uncle Shank A (Post 5, 3-1) — The most consistently competitive horse in the field, fighting hard for the lead in back-to-back starts even in defeat.

Longshot value: Copperfield (Post 9, 15-1) — Ships back from the tougher Yonkers circuit with the field’s best driver/trainer efficiency figure and drops into a winnable class spot tonight.