Las Vegas currently lists the Rams as a small road favorite (‑3.5 to ‑4.5), and prediction markets give Los Angeles roughly a 60–65% win probability. Despite some analysts picking Chicago, the sharp money is leaning Rams based on market movement, weather-adjusted models, and Stafford’s elite passing season.

Game Preview

The Bears and Rams meet in the NFC Divisional Round after Chicago won their last matchup 24–18 in September. Chicago enters riding the momentum of Caleb Williams’ dramatic comeback win over Green Bay, where he erased a 21–3 deficit and threw for a franchise playoff‑record 361 yards. Williams now has seven fourth‑quarter game‑winning drives this season and continues to thrive under pressure.

The Rams arrive after a 34–31 wild‑card win over Carolina, led by Matthew Stafford’s 304 yards and three touchdowns despite a finger injury. Cold, snowy weather is expected in Chicago, but Stafford has historically excelled in low‑temperature games at Soldier Field. Los Angeles brings major firepower with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, plus a pass rush that produced 47 sacks.

Chicago’s offensive line is reshuffling again with two tackles returning from IR, while the Rams get a boost with standout guard Kevin Dotson set to return. Both head coaches — Sean McVay and Ben Johnson — are regarded as elite offensive minds, adding a strategic layer to the matchup.

Rookie tight end Colston Loveland has emerged as a key target for Williams with Rome Odunze still questionable. Chicago’s defense leads the league in interceptions and takeaways, but they’ll be tested by Stafford, who led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns this season.

The winner advances to the NFC Championship to face The Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field

Setting the Stage

• Last meeting: Bears beat Rams 24–18 (Sept 2024).
• Now: Divisional Round at frigid Soldier Field with temps in the teens and snow flurries.

Chicago Bears

• Caleb Williams is becoming a late‑game assassin:
  • 361 yards last week
  • 7 game‑winning drives this season
• Bears overcame a 21–3 deficit vs Green Bay.
• Rookie TE Colston Loveland has become Williams’ go‑to target (137 yards last week).
• Defense leads NFL in interceptions (23) and takeaways (33).
• Key injuries:
  • WR Rome Odunze questionable
  • DB Nick McCloud OUT

Los Angeles Rams

• Matthew Stafford is having a monster season:
  • NFL‑leading 4,707 yards and 46 TDs
• Stafford is 4–1 in Chicago when temps < 40°F.
• Weapons:
  • Davante Adams (14 TDs)
  • Puka Nacua (NFL‑leading 129 catches)
• Rams’ pass rush: 47 sacks this season.
• OL boost: Kevin Dotson returning, one of the league’s best guards.
• Only minor injuries (Garoppolo, Desjuan Johnson questionable).

Current Odds & Market Signals

Las Vegas Odds

• Rams -3.5 to -4.5 depending on book
• Total: 48.5

Prediction Markets (Kalshi)

• Rams win probability: ~64%
• Bears: ~37%

Media Picks

• Some analysts pick Chicago in an upset (e.g., AZCentral predicts Bears 27–24), but market money outweighs media opinions.

📈 Sharp Betting Patterns

1. Line Movement Favors the Rams

• Rams opened around ‑3 and moved to ‑3.5 / ‑4.5, indicating sharp action on L.A. (Road favorites rarely get bet up unless respected bettors like the matchup.)

2. Weather Models Favor Stafford

• Stafford has a strong cold‑weather track record in Chicago.
• Rams’ passing game is considered more “weather‑proof” by sharps.

3. Matchup Edges

• Rams’ elite WR duo vs Bears’ banged‑up secondary.
• Bears’ offensive tackles are just returning from IR → sharps expect pressure on Caleb Williams.

4. Prediction Markets Align With Sharps

• Kalshi’s 64% Rams probability is a strong indicator of smart‑money sentiment.

Who Will Win Based on Odds + Sharp Money?

Projected Winner: Los Angeles Rams

Why?

• Market movement toward L.A.
• Prediction markets heavily favor Rams
• Stafford’s elite season + cold‑weather success
• Bears’ secondary injuries
• Rams’ pass rush vs Bears’ shaky OL
• Chicago’s comeback‑dependent style is risky vs a veteran QB like Stafford

Expected Outcome

Rams by 3–7 points Likely a high‑scoring but cold‑weather game where Stafford’s experience and L.A.’s weapons give them the edge.