November 29, 2022

UFC Vegas 64 Odds, Picks and Preview

3 min read

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to go down tonight (Sat., Nov. 5, 2022)  from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a women’s strawweight main event between Top 10 title hopefuls Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos, a five-round headliner with serious title implications for late 2022 and beyond.

The co-main event will feature Neil Magny against Daniel Rodriguez.

We’re going to share our best bets from the UFC Vegas 64 main card. We’ll also list the complete odds for every fight at the bottom of our UFC Vegas 64 preview. Good luck this weekend.

Picks and Previews Scoresandstats

Rodriguez vs. Lemos Predictions

Fight Odds: Rodriguez (-225) vs. Lemos (+190)

Rodriguez (16-1-2) is on a 4-fight win streak dating back to last year. She won two five-round decisions during the current streak. She has 6 TKO/KO wins, 1 submission win and 9 decision wins.

Lemos (12-2-1) 6-1 in the UFC since 2019.This year she’s already 1-1. She lost to Jessica Andrade by submission in the first round, but she bounced back by defeating Michelle Waterson-Gomez by submission.

Lemos has won ten fights by stoppage. She has been stopped in both of her losses. The problem with Lemos is she lacks cardio and that’s going to hurt her in this five-round main event fight.

Both fighters are active strikers. Rodriguez averages 5.03 SLpM and Lemos averages 4.87 SLpM.

One area where Rodriguez has the edge is striking defense. Rodriguez averages 3.07 SApM (57% striking defense), while Lemos averages 4.40 SApM (48% striking defense).

Rodriguez should win this fight if she can avoid being stopped early on. However, her moneyline odds aren’t great. My best bet is on this fight going over 3.5 rounds on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 Rounds (-120)

Magny vs. Rodriguez Predictions

Fight Odds: Magny (-125) vs. Rodriguez (+105)

We have two 35-year-old fighters meeting in the co-main event. Magny (26-9) has an experience edge, but Rodriguez (17-2) is 7-1 in the UFC since joining the promotion back in 2020.

Rodriguez has won four fights in a row. His last two wins were against Kevin Lee and Jingliang Li. Magny is only 2-2 in his last four fights and he’s coming off a loss against Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission.

Magny will have a huge 6” reach advantage in this fight. However, he’ll want to try and take this fight to the mat. He averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Rodriguez has 73% takedown defense.

Rodriguez is a very active striker. He’s averaging 7.75 SLpM (Magny 3.59 SLpM). He has eight career wins by TKO/KO, but only two in the UFC. He does need to work on avoiding strikes.

Magny averages 2.16 SApM and utilizes his reach to avoid getting hit often. Rodriguez averages 5.35 SApM and Magny will be able to score lots of points if this fight goes the distance.

However, Magny has been stopped seven times and D-Rod is capable of finishing.

Best Bet: Rodriguez ML (+105)

Dawson vs. Madsen Predictions
Fight Odds: Dawson (-200) vs. Madsen (+170)

Grant Dawson will fight Mark Madsen in the opening fight on the UFC Vegas 64 main card.

Dawson (18-1-1) is 6-0-1 in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2019. Madsen (12-0) is 4-0 in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2020. These are two tough lightweights.

Both fighters like taking the fight to the mat. Madsen averages 3.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and Dawson averages 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. Both have poor takedown defense also.

Dawson will likely look to lock in a submission while on the mat. He has 12 submission wins, but Madsen is an excellent wrestler and it won’t be easy to make him tap out this weekend.

There’s a good chance this fight will go back and forth with both fighters landing takedowns. Madsen is a live underdog at a great price, but my best bet is on this fight going the distance.

Best Bet: Fight Goes to Decision (-180)

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