Top Contenders for Super Bowl LX|After Week 15
5 min read
Teams Most Likely to Go Deep (Based on Odds & Current Performance)
According to recent Super Bowl futures odds from multiple sportsbooks as of Week 15:
Leading favorites
- Los Angeles Rams – Favorite to win the Super Bowl, currently around +390 to +450 depending on the sportsbook.
- Seattle Seahawks – Strong NFC team with odds around +650 to +800.
- Green Bay Packers – Also around +800, though recent injury issues could matter.
- Buffalo Bills – Close behind with +850 odds.
Other credible contenders
- New England Patriots – Around +1000, with a strong record in the AFC.
- Denver Broncos – Also near +1000 with the top AFC seed.
- Philadelphia Eagles – About +1100, though less consistent lately.
- Houston Texans & Jacksonville Jaguars – Both flirting with top-10 odds (e.g., +1300 to +1900).
These odds reflect betting markets and imply relative perceived chances, not guarantees — but they give a good snapshot of expectations heading into the final weeks.
📈 Teams That Stand Out After Week 15 — Contender Tier
AFC Contenders
- Denver Broncos (12-2) – Best record in the league and have clinched a playoff spot. Leading the AFC right now, though some analysts note their schedule wasn’t as tough overall.
- New England Patriots (11-3) – Strong record, easy schedule to date relative to other contenders.
- Buffalo Bills (10-4) – Competitive in a strong division, still chasing Patriots.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) – In solid playoff position and gaining confidence as a top-tier AFC team.
NFC Contenders
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3) – NFC leaders and favorites in futures betting.
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3) – Strong second NFC West contender with excellent odds.
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) – Despite a key injury to Micah Parsons, still top NFC North with legitimate odds.
- Chicago Bears (10-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) – Both in playoff spots and rising as teams to watch.
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4) – Strong mid-season rise and capable of knocking on the door late.
📉 Pretenders or Riskier Prototypes
Some teams look good in the standings but face questions based on schedule strength or sustainability:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – Having a strong record isn’t enough; they have one of the toughest remaining SOS and their remaining slate is brutal.
- Steelers (7-6) & Ravens (7-7) – Middle-tier records and metrics suggest they may not be true contenders.
- Detroit Lions (8-6) – Good record but inconsistent and tougher road ahead.
Notable collapse:
- Kansas City Chiefs — out of playoff contention after Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending injury — eliminating a perennial contender.
📊 Schedule Strength Matters
Strength of schedule (SOS) helps clarify which teams’ records may be inflated or under-appreciated:
- Teams with harder schedules faced to date (indicative of tougher opponents already played): Colts, Seahawks, Broncos, Lions, Packers.
- Teams with easier schedules so far include: Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles — which can inflate records without proving dominance.
Remaining SOS (remaining opponent difficulty) also matters:
- Colts have one of the hardest remaining slates, which could expose them.
- Teams like the Bills and Buccaneers have easier remaining schedules, possibly helping their playoff push.
📌 Summary — Best Chances to Reach Super Bowl LX
| Team | Probability (Market Odds / Standing) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rams | Favorite (+390–+450) | Strong NFC West leader, good resume |
| Seahawks | +650–+800 | Very strong NFC, great finish ahead |
| Packers | +800 | NFC North leader, but key injuries matter |
| Bills | +850 | Strong contender in tough AFC East |
| Patriots | +1000 | Great record, easy schedule caveat |
| Broncos | +1000 | Best record, AFC top seed |
| Eagles | +1100 | Wildcard with upside |
| Jaguars / Texans | +1300–+1900 | Dark-horse AFC teams |
(Odds approximate and vary by sportsbook; recent aggregated market data.)
Remaining Strength of Schedule (SoS) — Key Contenders
The remaining strength of schedule (SoS) measures how tough a team’s upcoming opponents are — a higher value means harder opponents. Below are relevant figures using an NFL model of opponent win-percentages remaining for the rest of the season:
🔥 Toughest Remaining Paths
| Team | Remaining SoS | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | .692 | Hardest remaining slate — tough playoff push ahead. |
| Seattle Seahawks | .654 | Strong contender but quality foes ahead. |
| Denver Broncos | .644 | Still solid but schedule isn’t easy. |
| LA Chargers | .606 | Hard games ahead, could impact seeding. |
| Baltimore Ravens | .606 | Balanced schedule with several strong opponents. |
| Detroit Lions | .596 | Good position but tough finish. |
| Green Bay Packers | .596 | Hard opponents left. |
🍀 Easier Remaining Paths
| Team | Remaining SoS | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | .327 | One of the easiest remaining schedules — could be huge advantage late. |
| New England Patriots | .462 | Easier opponents ahead compared to many contenders. |
| Buffalo Bills | .481 | Favorable remaining slate helps AFC push. |
| Los Angeles Rams | .481 | Easier finish; could solidify NFC top seed. |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | .462 | Helpful schedule if close in race. |
| Washington Commanders | .471 | Slightly easier path. |
👉 In general, teams like Eagles, Pats, Bills, and Rams have a relatively friendlier path down the stretch, which can improve their playoff probability and chances to secure a home game or higher seed. Meanwhile, teams like Colts, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Packers, and Ravens face tougher competition that could expose weaknesses or lead to slip-ups.
🏆 How Remaining Schedule Impacts Contenders
Here’s how the remaining slate shapes the playoff and Super Bowl picture for major contenders:
🔵 AFC
📍 Broncos
- Already clinched a postseason berth and hold top seed.
- But a challenging remaining schedule means any slip could alter seeding or home-field advantage.
📍 Patriots
- Benefit from an easier remaining slate, which can help them maintain their strong record while avoiding traps.
- A favorable schedule helps maximize win rate and avoid late-season collapses.
📍 Bills
- With moderate SoS, they can keep pace with the Patriots and Broncos — especially with some easier opponents coming up.
📍 Jaguars & Texans
- Jaguars have mid-range difficulty remaining (not extreme either way), so they’ll need consistency.
- Texans are trending well, but their schedule isn’t easy — upcoming Broncos and Chargers games are big tests.
📍 Colts
- Their extremely difficult slate remaining explains why some regard their current record skeptically — they may struggle to hold a wild-card or higher seed.
🔴 NFC
📍 Rams
- Their remaining schedule is moderately easier relative to other NFC contenders, helping them stay atop the conference.
📍 Eagles
- One of the easiest remaining schedules in the league — this can be a big advantage for playoff seeding and confidence — especially if they can rack up wins late.
📍 Seahawks
- Despite current strong play and high odds, their remaining SoS is not easy — the difficulty ahead could tighten race with other NFC teams.
📍 Packers & Lions
- Both have tougher slates remaining, meaning they must maintain high performance to avoid losing ground.
📊 SoS Takeaways for Super Bowl Odds
- 📈 Teams that benefit from easier slates: Eagles, Patriots, Bills, Rams
— Increased probability of piling up wins down the stretch, better playoff positioning, less attrition. - 📉 Teams facing gauntlets: Colts, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, Packers, Ravens
— Must sustain high play just to maintain record; slip-ups could be costly late.
📍 How to Use This in Betting or Projections
If you’re evaluating Super Bowl futures or playoff odds:
✅ Teams with easier schedules can be better late-season investments if current odds don’t yet reflect the advantage.
❗ Teams with tough schedules may see regression or weakening odds if a key matchup doesn’t go their way.
Schedule strength doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but it sharpens expectations for how much work a contender has left to cement a championship run.
