Super Bowl LX: Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots Sunday Feb 8,2026

Seattle is the clear favorite in both Vegas lines and futures markets, with New England positioned as the live underdog.

Quick snapshot: line, total, and market lean

Item	Seahawks	Patriots
Spread	-4.5 (around -110 to -115)	+4.5 (around -105 to -110)
Moneyline	~-225	~+185
Total	45.5 (O/U, -110 both sides)
MVP favorite	Sam Darnold +135	Drake Maye +215

Current Las Vegas odds and what they imply

Point spread and moneyline

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 vs Patriots +4.5 is a classic “better team by a tier” number—books are saying Seattle is roughly 4–5 points better on a neutral field.
• Moneyline: Seahawks around -225 implies roughly a 69–70% win probability before vig; Patriots +185 implies around 34–35%. Once you account for juice, the “true” implied gap is a bit smaller, but Seattle is still a solid favorite.
• Total (45.5): This projects a mid-40s scoring environment—books are expecting competent offenses, but not a pure shootout. Weather at Levi’s Stadium in early February is usually mild, so this number is more about matchup than conditions.

Where the sharp money appears to be early

No book will outright say “the sharps are on X,” but you can read the tea leaves from:

• Line movement vs. public narrative
• Juice shading
• Media reports from betting analysts

From the odds and notes so far:

1. Seattle opened as the favorite and has held that role firmly. Reports frame Seattle as the “no-doubt favorite,” which usually means early respected money didn’t push this toward a pick’em.
2. -4.5 instead of -3 or -3.5 is telling. If books were scared of sharp Patriots money, you’d often see a softer opener (like -3.5) that gets bet up. Sitting at -4.5 with standard juice suggests:
   • Public: Likely leaning Seahawks (better record, hotter narrative).
   • Sharps: Either split or selectively grabbing Patriots +4.5 or better, but not in overwhelming volume—otherwise this would be closer to -3.5.
3. Total at 45.5 with balanced juice. No obvious early sharp position on the total yet—if there were strong sharp under money, you’d expect 44.5 or heavy under juice by now.

Early read:

• Public money: Slightly more likely on Seahawks -4.5 and Sam Darnold MVP, riding the “Seattle is on a roll” storyline.
• Sharp money: Quietly interested in Patriots +4.5 or better and alternative angles like Patriots first half or correlated props (e.g., Rhamondre Stevenson usage if New England leans run-heavy). That’s an inference based on the line holding at 4.5 instead of steaming to -6 despite Seattle hype.

Matchup breakdown: stats, trends, and edges

Quarterbacks and passing game

• Seahawks (Sam Darnold):
  • Comes in as the MVP favorite at +135, which tells you books expect Seattle’s offense to function well and likely win.
  • Seattle’s season narrative: efficient passing, explosive plays, and strong red-zone execution. Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both have short MVP odds, signaling a balanced, dangerous offense.
• Patriots (Drake Maye):
  • Massive year-over-year turnaround: from 4–13 in 2024 to 14–3 in 2025 under first-year head coach and rookie QB.
  • Maye at +215 for MVP shows respect—if New England wins, the market expects him to be the primary reason.

Edge:

• Ceiling: Slight edge to Seattle’s passing game—more proven explosive weapons and a QB the market trusts a bit more right now.
• Variance: New England’s rookie QB profile means higher volatility: he could either outperform the line or struggle under pressure.

Run game and offensive balance

• Seahawks:
  • Kenneth Walker III is among the top non-QB MVP candidates (+650), signaling a central role and strong production.
  • Seattle’s offense has been framed as “on a roll,” suggesting consistent success both on the ground and through the air.
• Patriots:
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is a longshot MVP candidate (22-1), but that price still shows he’s a key offensive piece.
  • New England’s turnaround has been tied to better offensive structure and efficiency, not just QB heroics.

Edge:

• Overall balance: Slight lean to Seattle, but New England’s run game gives them a path to shorten the game and keep it close.

Defense and coaching

• Patriots:
  • Survived a tough AFC Championship in bad weather vs. Denver, which usually signals a resilient defense and adaptable coaching.
  • The year-over-year leap from 4–13 to 14–3 suggests strong scheming and buy-in—this is not a fluky team.
• Seahawks:
  • Books and analysts consistently frame them as one of the biggest surprise top-tier teams, not just a lucky run.
  • Their odds position implies a defense good enough to complement a strong offense; otherwise, you wouldn’t see them as a solid favorite on a neutral field.

Edge:

• Coaching and defensive adaptability: Slight lean to New England—they’ve shown they can win ugly and adjust mid-game.
• Top-to-bottom roster strength: Slight lean to Seattle—market confidence is higher in their overall talent.

Trend-based angles that matter for this game

• Patriots as underdogs: Teams with a big year-over-year improvement and a strong defense often overperform as underdogs in single-game spots—especially when they can run the ball and shorten the game. New England fits that profile.
• Seahawks as favorites: The market has gradually moved Seattle into the “real contender” bucket. Their current price and spread suggest they’ve consistently covered or at least justified favorite roles throughout the season.
• MVP market as a clue:
  • Darnold +135 vs Maye +215 is a subtle but important signal: books see Seattle’s offense as more stable and more likely to be the deciding factor.
  • The presence of multiple Seattle skill players near the top of the MVP board suggests a higher offensive ceiling for them.

Projected outcome based on stats, trends, and market signals

Putting it all together:

• Baseline from the spread: Seahawks -4.5 on a neutral field implies something like a 24–20 or 27–21 type game as the central projection.
• Game script if Seattle covers:
  • Darnold plays efficiently, avoids major mistakes.
  • Walker and the run game keep New England’s defense honest.
  • Seattle’s pass rush forces Maye into a turnover or two.
  • Result: Seattle wins by 6–10 points, something like 27–20.
• Game script if New England covers or wins outright:
  • Patriots run game and short passing game control tempo.
  • Defense forces Seattle into field goals instead of touchdowns.
  • Maye hits a few high-leverage throws on third down and in the red zone.
  • Result: Tight game, something like 23–21 either way, with New England live to steal it late.

My projected outcome

• Projected final: Seahawks 26, Patriots 21
• Reasoning in plain terms:
  • The market’s implied probabilities, MVP odds, and season-long narratives all lean Seattle.
  • New England’s profile screams “tough out, great dog,” but their rookie QB and slightly lower offensive ceiling make it harder to pick them outright against a team the market has fully bought into.
  • A 5-point margin fits the current spread almost perfectly—Seattle does enough to justify being the favorite, but New England keeps it competitive.