New England at Tampa Bay Sunday Nov 9,2025
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New England at Tampa Bay
Last Meeting ( Oct 3, 2021 ) Tampa Bay 19, New England 17
Odds & Market
- Spread: Buccaneers –2.5.
- Total (Over/Under): ~48.5 points.
- Moneyline: Buccaneers favourite (approx –140), Patriots underdog (approx +120).
- Public betting: According to OddsCrowd, ~62% of money/spreads on Buccaneers, ~58% of tickets on Patriots +2.5.
Key Betting Angles and Trends
Strengths & weak points relevant to bets
- Patriots are on a 6-game win streak and therefore riding confidence.
- They’ll be missing key offensive contributors: RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR Kayshon Boutte are ruled out.
- The Buccaneers, coming off a bye, are slightly fresh and at home — both favourable.
- The Patriots’ defense has vulnerabilities in pass defense and big-play prevention, which could favour TB.
- Totals Trend: The Buccaneers have had multiple games coming off a bye where the “under” has hit.
- Public Lean: The spread is moving slowly toward Tampa, indicating the market favours them somewhat.
Here are some player-prop predictions for the New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game on Sunday Nov 9, 2025 — along with reasoning for each. These are not guarantees, just informed angles.
Top Player Props & My Leanings
- Drake Maye – Over 274.5 pass + rush yards
- Maye has passed for ~2,285 yards and rushed for ~270 this season.
- Opponent context: Tampa Bay allows ~228.8 passing yards per game to QBs in recent weeks.
- Lean: Take the Over. If New England is chasing or needs to stay aggressive, this has good upside.
- Emeka Egbuka – Over 70.5 receiving yards
- Egbuka averages ~70.3 receiving yards per game this season.
- With New England missing a key WR (Kayshon Boutte) due to injury, Egbuka’s share of targets may increase.
- Lean: Take the Over.
- Stefon Diggs – Anytime touchdown
- Diggs has had back-to-back weeks scoring, is the primary target, and Tampa Bay’s pass defense is vulnerable.
- Lean: Good value for “anytime TD”.
- TreVeyon Henderson – Over 72.5 rushing + receiving yards
- With Stevenson out (Rhamondre Stevenson) for New England, Henderson becomes the lead back.
- Tampa Bay has a good rush defense, but volume is on Henderson’s side.
- Lean: Moderate play, volume helps but matchup is tougher.
- Baker Mayfield – Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Mayfield has shown ability to throw 2+ TDs in favorable spots, and New England’s secondary has vulnerabilities.
- Lean: Possible depending on how the game flows (if Tampa Bay leads and passes more).
Summary Table
| Player | Prop | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Over 274.5 pass + rush yards | Yes – Over |
| Emeka Egbuka | Over 70.5 receiving yards | Yes – Over |
| Stefon Diggs | Anytime TD | Yes |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Over 72.5 rush + receive yds | Maybe |
| Baker Mayfield | Over 1.5 passing TDs | Depends |
Things to Watch / Risks
- Injuries could shift roles: New England is missing key players (Boutte, Stevenson).
- Game flow matters: If Tampa Bay jumps out to a big lead, New England might pass more; if it’s tight, run game may dominate or become conservative.
- Odds/lines may shift before the game — props could move.
- Always factor in you’re playing probabilities, not certainties.
