May 26, 2022

Minnesota at Boston When: 4:10 PM ET, Saturday, April 16, 2022

3 min read

Minnesota at Boston
When: 4:10 PM ET, Saturday, April 16, 2022
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
America’s Bookie Line: Boston (-130) Over/Uner (9.5)

The Minnesota Twins look to get back to a .500 record. The Boston Red Sox also look to get to a .500 record with a win here.

Boston will hope for a strong season debut from Saturday starter Tanner Houck after Nick Pivetta was pulled after just two innings on Friday.

The Minnesota Twins have scored 10 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in three of their last six games. The Twins are 3-0 this season when scoring four or more runs. Luis Arraez leads the Twins with 7 hits and 4 RBI, while Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton have combined for 12 hits and 7 RBI. Sonny Gray gets the ball, and he is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and four strikeouts this season. Gray is 1-6 with a 6.64 ERA and 37 strikeouts in his career against the Red Sox.

Trends

Minnesota are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston.
Minnesota are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the American League.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games against an opponent in the American League East Division division.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston’s last 16 games.
Boston are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games against Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston’s last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Boston are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the American League.
Boston are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played on a Saturday.

The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series and 6-2 in their last 8 Saturday games. The under is 5-1-2 in Twins last 8 overall. The under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 overall. The Twins are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.

The Boston Red Sox are going to get the edge here because they’re at home, and Houck has been respectable through his first 22 career games. However, we’re getting plus money with a pitcher in Gray who has been sharp over the last couple of seasons, and the Twins have a lineup capable of trading blows here. In 75 at bats against current Boston hitters, Gray is allowing a .135 batting average with 25 strikeouts. I’ll take the plus money with the road team.

Twins pitchers have given up 7 long balls and also 24 runs (15th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 31 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 4.72 as a team this season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 1.55 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.35. The Twins have compiled a team ERA of 3.83 over the course of the season (13th in the league), and their staff has struck out 48 hitters.

“The Twins have dispatched 24 relief pitchers to the mound over the course of the season. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 7 base runners for the year with 57.1% of them ended up crossing the plate. They have recorded 0 saves so far this season and have missed out on 1 out of their 1 save opportunities. The Twins bullpen have a save percentage of 0.0% and has come into the game in 1 save situations. The bullpen have 0 holds so far this season (29th in baseball). Twins bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 5 times as well as having 3 appearances in high leverage situations.”

ATBForum: Play on Twins (+113)

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