August 9, 2022

CFP semifinal (Rose Bowl): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

2 min read

The game was relocated from the Rose Bowl to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. on ESPN.  The Fighting Irish and thier supporters will be happy to just have made it this far but if you’re going to ask me “do they have a chance” I would tell you that you’d have a better chance at winning a lottery in the near future than these guys even being competive against Alabama.

The bookmakers opened this game at Alabama (-18) O/U (65.5) and the line currently sits at Alabama (-20.5) O/U (66)

Can you give Notre Dame any shot at staying inside this number? Well did anyone watch the ACC Championship Game 34-10 where Notre Dame took it on the chin against Clemson?
Notre Dame has yet to recover from the 30-3 beating they took two years ago in the CFP semifinal and the way Alabama puts points on the board this could look even worse when the final whistle blows.
The Crimson Tide ranked second in the FBS with 49.7 points per game. I believe this is the  largest semifinal spread in the history of the College Football Playoff. 

 Alabama vs. Notre Dame all-time series 

The Irish lead the all-time series 5-2, and that includes victories in the 1973 Sugar Bowl and the 1975 Orange Bowl. The Crimson Tide won the last meeting 42-14 in the BCS championship game on Jan. 7, 2013

The Crimson Tide is 4-1 S/U in CFP semifinals, and Alabama is 3-2 ATS in those games. The Crimson Tide is 1-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite in those games.
The Irish are 5-6 ATS this season. Notre Dame is 12-10-1 ATS in neutral-site games under Brian Kelly since 2010.
The Crimson Tide is 8-3 ATS this season, and that includes a 2-1 ATS mark when the spread is fewer than 20 points

Nick Saban 8-3 vs. line this year, on 9-3 run since late 2019. Bama, however, just 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls/title games. Irish were only 5-6 vs. line this year and 3-5 last eight vs. line in bowls. Brian Kelly 5-4 as dog since 2016. Tech Edge: Alabama, based on team

Final score: Alabama 49, Notre Dame 21 (Give up the points Take Crimson Tide)

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