May 26, 2022

AFC Championship| Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs

2 min read

The Bills are in the NFL playoffs for the third time in the last four years and they look to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in the last 27 but the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs stand in their way.

It’s AFC Championship weekend and the t Vegas bookmakers have this game listed as the following if you’re thinking of putting a few dollars on the game for “entertainment” purposes.

LAS VEGAS ODDS

Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -3

Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 54

Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo +140, Kansas City -160

This game had opened with Buffalo (-3) as there was uncertainty on the status of Patrick Mahomes after leaving last weeks game versus the Browns. The line moved in the direction of KC once it was announced that Patrick Mahomes would be cleared to play and that’s where the line currently sits.

The Chiefs have struggled to cover the number going 1-8 ATS in their L9 games including last weekend failed cover of the Browns who got +8 pts.
The Chiefs could get a boost with the possible return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire for this game.

The Bills on the other had have been a “cover” machine of late going 9-1 ATS in their L10 games.

TOP TEAM TRENDS
• BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS(L7G) on ROAD – Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game
• KANSAS CITY is 1-6 ATS(CS) – Against lesser rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry
• BUFFALO is 7-1 UNDER(L8G) on ROAD – Referee – VINOVICH

HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND
• Including Chiefs’ 26-17 win at Buffalo in October, ROAD TEAMS are on 8-2 ATS surge in h2h series, and Bills are
7-2 ATS in L9 at KC

KC did dominate Buffalo in the earlier meeting this year with a 466-206 yard edge including 245 rush yards. KC was a 5.5-point road favorite in that one. Since that game, Buffalo is 11-1 SU, KC is 10-1 SU and the only loss was when the Chiefs rested vs the Chargers win Week 17.KC went a perfect 6-0 SU vs winning teams this year.

After watching both teams last week I don’t want to be the guy jumping on the “mafia” bandwagon but I find it very difficult laying points at this stage
of the season on a team that has not beaten the spread since November 1st, going 0-8-1 ATS since then.

Welcome back to the Super Bowl Buffalo!
Prediction: Buffalo 28- KC 24 (Take Buffalo +3 pts)

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