Vegas Line

• Spread: Jaguars ‑1.5
• Total: 51
• Moneyline: Bills +105 / Jaguars ‑125

Cleaned‑Up Breakdown

Recent Form

Jacksonville enters the postseason as one of the NFL’s hottest teams, riding an eight‑game winning streak to finish 13‑4 and secure the AFC South title. First‑year head coach Liam Coen has engineered a dramatic turnaround, becoming the first coach in league history to take a four‑win team to 12+ wins in his debut season.

Buffalo, meanwhile, finished 12‑5 but lost the AFC East for the first time in six years. The Bills now face a major hurdle: they haven’t won a road playoff game since 1992, dropping nine straight.

Jacksonville Outlook

Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career.

• First 11 games: 14 TD, 11 INT
• Last 6 games: 15 TD, 1 INT
• Added 9 rushing TDs, setting a franchise record with 38 total touchdowns.

Jacksonville’s defense has also surged, posting a franchise‑record 22 interceptions. Health is another advantage — the Jaguars enter the game nearly fully intact, with only LT Cole Van Lanen listed as questionable.

Buffalo Outlook

Josh Allen historically elevates in the postseason, averaging more yards and touchdowns in playoff games than in the regular season. He’s fully healthy after resting Week 18.

But Buffalo’s injury report is rough:

• OUT: LB Terrel Bernard, CB Maxwell Hairston, WR Josh Palmer, S Damar Hamlin (IR)
• Questionable: RB Ty Johnson, LB Shaq Thompson, K Matt Prater

Buffalo’s defense is especially thin at linebacker and in the secondary — a dangerous combination against a quarterback who’s been carving up coverages for six straight weeks.

History

• All‑time series: 10–10
• Last meeting (2024): Bills 47, Jaguars 10
• Playoff meetings: Jaguars 2–0 (1996, 2018)

Vegas opened Buffalo as a slight favorite, but sharp money has pushed Jacksonville to ‑1.5. That usually signals respected bettors backing the home team, even though public tickets lean toward Buffalo.

Prediction (Based on Line Movement + Matchup + Consensus Play)

Key factors:

• Jacksonville is healthier, hotter, and at home.
• Buffalo’s defense is missing core starters.
• Lawrence is peaking at the right time.
• The Bills’ road‑playoff drought is real — and relevant.

Projected Score: Jaguars 27, Bills 24

• Side: Jacksonville ‑1.5
• Total: Slight lean Under 51 (both teams can score, but playoff tempo tends to tighten)
• Moneyline: Jacksonville ‑125