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RACE 1 – FM 4YO & YOUNGER, NW1/$10K LIFETIME – $20,000
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TOP 3:
1. #7 CANT TURN YOU DOWN (3-1) – Was shut off and lost her path in the stretch last week yet still finished a clear second with plenty left, showing the most untapped upside in the field.
2. #4 ALWAYS BE EMMA (7-2) – Scored a debut win with a strong late kick and now moves into a powerful new barn/driver combo (Dupont/Roy) that boosts her ceiling.
3. #2 SHOW MUST GO ON (5-1) – Two dominant wire-to-wire qualifying wins, the second faster than the first, show a filly still improving with each start.

LONGSHOT VALUE #10 SHOWME UR KITTIES (10-1) – Fought back gamely from off the pace for third last week against tougher, and her trainer/driver combo (Thomas/Macdonald) is red hot.

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RACE 2 – FM 5YO & YOUNGER, NW2/$30,000 LIFETIME – $22,000
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TOP 3:
1. #5 ARTISTIC DELIGHT (6-1) – Rallied from last, lost ground three-wide, and still paced the fastest final quarter of her career to finish second, then repeated that trip for a win last week.
2. #6 ON FLEEK (5-2) – Second-place finisher last week from post 3 against similar; she draws well again and has been knocking on the door all season.
3. #3 KISSEDBYASTRANGER (3-1) – Nine minor awards in 18 lifetime starts is remarkably consistent, and she’s raced in fast company all year without missing a check often.

LONGSHOT VALUE  #1 CATTLEKISS (8-1) – A six-time winner last year with real class, she’s coming off a troubled trip but her underlying speed figures are faster than several in here.

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RACE 3 – 2YO COLT/GELDING PACE (MAIDEN QUALIFIERS) – $22,000
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TOP 3:
1. #6 KERPLUNK (3-1) – Already has real purse earnings and was still cranking home in 27 4/5 late despite an aggressive, taxing trip early, suggesting more class than his rivals.
2. #8 TRASHNYOURDREAMS (6-1) – Won his debut as a 26-1 shot by digging in to hold off a game rival, real evidence of grit beyond his sticker price.
3. #2 EL CUCUY (7-2) – Two forward-moving efforts, the second a professional debut runner-up against a tough foe, and he’s improving every time out.

LONGSHOT VALUE #8 TRASHNYOURDREAMS (6-1) – Already covered above — a legitimate debut winner at a square price against straight maidens.

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RACE 4 – 2YO TROT COLT/GELDING – OSS GRASSROOTS LEG 1 – $30,000
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TOP 3:
1. #2 KING OF THE SOUTH (9-2) – Closed the hardest ground of anyone in the field in his debut, still gaining at the wire despite a wide, uncovered trip, and now draws a better post.
2. #6 SPEEDY MICHAEL (3-1) – Dominated gate-to-wire in his second qualifier for a powerful stable, showing the most decisive class edge in the field.
3. #7 GRACEFUL KING (6-1) – A $100,000 purchase who was parked for over half the mile in his qualifier yet still trotted on gamely, indicating real quality once he gets a fair trip.

LONGSHOT VALUE #7 GRACEFUL KING (6-1) – Covered above — a well-bred, well-tested colt who’s shown grit despite tough trips and hasn’t had a clean shot yet.

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RACE 5 – TOMPKINS-GEERS 2YO FILLY PACE – $71,376
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TOP 3:
1. #8 IM SWEET ON LOU (3-1) – Led gate-to-wire in both her qualifier and debut without being fully cranked up late, indicating faster times are still in the tank.
2. #3 MAURITIUS (4-1) – Flew home in 26 1/5 in her debut only to get caught right at the wire, showing top-shelf finishing speed against a similar class of foe.
3. #7 BOARDWALK BABE (10-1) – Cut 5 seconds off her time in her final qualifier and held off a rival who came out and won a $100,000 stakes race next out, a strong hidden form angle.

LONGSHOT VALUE #7 BOARDWALK BABE (10-1) – Detailed above — the qualifier she beat produced an OSS Gold winner next start, suggesting she’s much better than her odds imply.

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RACE 6 – 2YO TROT COLT/GELDING – OSS GRASSROOTS LEG 1 – $30,000
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TOP 3:
1. #8 ERINWOOD COSMO (7-2) – Rallied from sixth at a wide post to win going away in his debut, showing the most professional trip and finishing kick in the field.
2. #9 KINGS CROWN N COKE (9-2) – Fended off Erinwood Cosmo in his most recent qualifier and owns real gate speed to overcome his wide post again.
3. #5 CLARKY (3-1) – Had a rival dead to rights in mid-stretch of his debut before an unusual mishap cost him the race, hinting at more ability than his line shows.

LONGSHOT VALUE #7 MAKING GREEN (6-1) – A well-bred half-brother to a $1.3-million earner who made a strong middle move to finish a clear second in his qualifier debut.

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RACE 7 – TOMPKINS-GEERS 2YO COLT/GELDING PACE – $62,063
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TOP 3:
1. #3 MASCARPONE (5-2) – Led gate-to-wire in his second qualifier after closing well in his first, pairing two fast closing quarters that mark him as the most tested colt here.
2. #6 SHALOM HANOVER (3-1) – Led wire-to-wire in both qualifiers with authority and draws the rail for his pari-mutuel debut, a strong sign of class in hand.
3. #1 NINELEVEN HANOVER (8-1) – Just missed in his debut after a wide-attacking move in the stretch, showing he’s clearly a contender at this level, not just a longshot.

LONGSHOT VALUE #1 NINELEVEN HANOVER (8-1) – Covered above — nearly won last time against winners and gets a rail draw that should suit his running style.

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RACE 8 – 2YO TROT COLT/GELDING (MAIDEN QUALIFIERS) – $22,000
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TOP 3:
1. #6 THE ITALIAN JOB (5-2) – Won his second qualifier by pacing a sharp 26 2/5 closing quarter to outsprint the field, the fastest recent number in this race.
2. #2 ACCESS NOW (3-1) – Took command in the third quarter of his most recent qualifier and finished off the race with a strong 27 1/5 kick, showing tactical speed and finishing punch.
3. #3 INKED CCL (6-1) – Showed clear improvement between his two qualifiers and is bred to a family of $100,000 winners.

LONGSHOT VALUE  #3 INKED CCL (6-1) – Detailed above — visible progression start to start plus black-type family suggest more upside than his $8,000 price tag implies.

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RACE 9 – FILLIES & MARES OPEN – $44,000
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TOP 3:
1. #6 LETS N JOY N (5-2) – An 11-time winner in her last 14 starts overall who simply needs the right post, and she draws the best one tonight.
2. #4 ULTIMATE DESBI N (3-1) – Closed from last past six rivals down the far outside for third last time and has been finishing full of run in every recent start.
3. #3 ABSOLUTION (6-1) – Dropped in class last week and dominated, crushing the field to lower her lifetime mark, showing she’s sitting on a big effort if she can carry that form up in class.

LONGSHOT VALUE #3 ABSOLUTION (6-1) – Covered above — a lifetime-best, dominant effort just one start back is hard to ignore even moving up the ladder.

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RACE 10 – 2YO TROT COLT/GELDING – OSS GRASSROOTS LEG 1 – $30,000
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TOP 3:
1. #3 ERINWOOD TRITON (3-1) – Already has a real pari-mutuel win, leading gate-to-wire and pulling away, the only proven winner in the field.
2. #2 GREAT WHITE NORTH (5-2) – Closed hard from off the pace in his debut to fall just a neck short of a much higher-priced rival, showing plenty of promise.
3. #5 R NORTHERN STAR (4-1) – Was full value for at least third or fourth before jumping it off late in his debut, and now draws one of the best posts to try again clean.

LONGSHOT VALUE  #9 SUNDAE ROYALE (15-1) – Improved his qualifying final quarter by more than a second between starts and only broke stride in his debut after showing genuine early speed.

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RACE 11 – NW $1,000 LAST 4/$6,800 LAST 8 STARTS – $11,000
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TOP 3:
1. #3 JGS PAL (3-1) – Was second against a tougher field just a few starts back and has the most consistent recent form in this specific class.
2. #9 BUCK DANCER (4-1) – Took command early and turned back a determined closer to win convincingly two starts back, and now returns on a normal rotation.
3. #7 SHAMPOO GIRL (6-1) – Found her stride again after gait trouble, converting a pocket trip into a qualifying win, then cutting fast fractions in two subsequent starts.

LONGSHOT VALUE  #7 SHAMPOO GIRL (6-1) – Covered above — a mare who appears to have solved recent physical issues and is racing back into form at a fair price.