2026 Kentucky Oaks Selections |Fri May 1st,2026
3 min read
The 152nd Kentucky Oaks goes Friday May 1,2026 at Churchill Downs. NBC Sports will broadcast it live with a scheduled post time of 8:40 p.m.
A few notable updates from current coverage:
“Historical trends point strongly to Bella Ballerina — she won the Golden Rod-G2 at Churchill, prepped at Fair Grounds, has tactical speed, and has run only twice as a 3-year-old. Seven of the last eight Oaks winners ran only one or two preps as sophomores, and 18 of the last 21 winners had already won at the graded stakes level. That’s worth noting since she’s currently 12/1 — potential overlay.”
Outside posts have also been historically advantageous — since 2005, horses from posts 10-14 have hit the board at a 28.6% clip versus 22% for posts 1-9. That’s a mild boost for Percy’s Bar (11), Bella Ballerina (12), and Pashmina (13).
California-based fillies have won only once in the last 14 editions, which is a quiet concern for both Explora and Meaning, who are both Southern California shippers
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Explora
6/1 MLPost 1Prime Power #1 — 143.9
Speed last race: 90 Back speed: 97 E/P style: 8 Baffert 2026: 27% win
Top Prime Power in the field (143.9) with 7 starts, 4 wins and $1.05M earned — the most seasoned filly in the field. Her Honeybee-G3 win at OP showed tactical pace-pressing ability, and Flavien Prat inherits the mount after Hernandez rode her to a 98 speed figure in 2025. Bob Baffert is 27/60% (win/ITM) in 2026 routes, and the rail post at this distance is neutral by bias data (0.98 IV).
Bottle of Rouge
15/1 MLPost 8Prime Power #2 — 143.3
Speed last race: 92 Back speed: 94 E/P style: 6 Baffert 2026: 30% win
Two wins in 2026 including the VA Oaks (92 speed fig, rallied off rail at 1/4 pole) and Sun Park Oaks (94 fig) — the highest speed figure in her last two races of any filly in this field. At 15/1 she is significantly undervalued relative to her figures; Baffert’s shipper stats are 30/65% ITM and her E2/Late pace profile (93 best) suits the distance. A second Baffert entry keeps her price high.
Meaning
5/1 MLPost 5Prime Power #3 — 142.8
Speed last race: 92 Back speed: 90 E/P style: 6 ACL: 117.8 (best)
Best Average Class Level in the field at 117.8 and unbeaten in 4 career starts. Her SA Oaks win came with a 103/105 early pace figure — dominant gate-to-wire form — and Gun Runner fillies are 20% mud/wet surface if the track comes up off. Juan Hernandez won on her in 2025 and takes back the mount. Her 5/1 morning line is fairly priced given her undefeated record, but the jump from two to nine furlongs is the main question mark.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY
Percy’s Bar
6/1 MLPost 11Avg Class Last 3: 121.8 — best in field
Speed last race: 90 Late pace last: 111 (best in field) Lifetime: $1.01M
Percy’s Bar owns the single-best late pace figure in this field — a jaw-dropping 111 LP in her Ashland-G1 win, where she rallied from the rail to draw off. Her Average Class Last 3 (121.8) and current class rating (120.4) top every other filly. While the Colebrook barn has limited Churchill Downs stakes experience, the horse’s figures speak louder: she is the deepest closer in the field and if the pace collapses after a hot early fraction (E1 par 92), she is the most dangerous. At 6/1 her value is real.
A few additional notes worth highlighting:
Why Bottle of Rouge is undervalued at 15/1: She’s the only filly in the field with back-to-back speed figures of 92+ in routes, and the second-highest Prime Power. The inflated odds are almost certainly because she’s a second Baffert entry overshadowed by Explora — but on pure figures, she’s the live price in the race.
Post position context: The Churchill meet bias shows posts 4-7 with a 1.02 impact value and 8+ posts at 1.00 — there’s essentially no meaningful disadvantage anywhere in this field from a post bias standpoint, so box numbers shouldn’t move the needle much.
Key pace scenario to watch: If Counting Stars and Explora duel up front (both are E/P types with high E1 figures), the late pace advantage swings hard to Percy’s Bar and Meaning — both thrive on a fast pace collapsing in the stretch
