With all major sports on the back burner the biggest event on the weekend will be the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park a Grade 1, $750,000 which is a major stepping stone to the 2020 Kentucky Derby.
How important is the Florida Derby when you look back at the history of this event leading to “the run for the roses”?
Since the inaugural Florida Derby back in 1952, fifteen horses have won the mile-and-an-eighth prep for the Kentucky Derby and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Break down those numbers even further for the betting public.
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Only one favorite has won the Florida Derby in the last 10 years, but the Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than any other prep race as was stated above.
The morning line odds have been set and it’s no surprise that Tiz The Law has been installed at your 6/5 choice.
Tiz The Law,looked very impressive in winning the Champagne Stakes (G1) but tossed in a poor result in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) event following that win and bounced back with a score in the Holy Bull.
Major talk around this one will be can he handle the 9 furlongs and how bad is the foot bruise which had workouts spaced so far apart its enough to scare me away from a play?
Second choice on the ML is Ete Indien (4-1). A runner up to Tiz The Law in the Holy Bull he did look tired and exhausted coming down the lane and the extra distance here will probably hurt the horse IMHO.
I believe he could be a horse to use in exotic wagers but for me I’ll look elsewhere for a win play which brigs me to Independence Hall.
Independence Hall. If Tiz The Law is going to falter like most fav’s had in previous years this is the horse I’ll take a shot on.
For me the key will be what Jockey Joel Rosario does this time around. I know this horse has the ability to chase the speed but will be have what it takes to finish off these when the money’s on the line?
If we get the morning line odds of (9/2) or higher he’s a top selection and will pass if he gets bet down to 3-1.
My Pick: Independence Hall ( 9/2)
Ex Key 9,12 with 3/5/7/9/12
Stay safe and keep well.