Week 4 NFL Recap

Hey guys,

I had another disappointing week in week 4, as I went 2-3 on my straight plays, 3-7 on my teasers, and hence 5-10 overall.  My winning straight plays were both added on Sunday, as I released Houston on Sunday 45 minutes before kickoff (after the line had gone up to +3 -115) and Seattle Sunday night about 1 hour before kickoff after the line had dropped to -12.5 or less at most top online sportsbooks.  My losing straight plays were on Baltimore +3/+3.5, Dallas -5.5, and Arizona -6/6.5.

As for my teaser plays, I knew that I was taking a calculated risk when I decided to bet five teams together in a round-robin in all of the possible 2-team combinations, which yielded 10 individual 2 team, 6 point teasers.  If all five teams would have covered the teaser spread I would have gone 10-0 on them, where as if 4  out of 5 of them did I would still have gone a winning 6-4 on them.  Unfortunately neither Atlanta or Baltimore even covered the 6-point teasers spread, and hence I went 3-7 on my teasers.  My three winning teasers were on Green Bay/Houston, Green Bay/Arizona, and Houston/Arizona.  My losing teasers were on Green Bay/Atlanta, Green Bay/Baltimore, Baltimore/Houston, Baltimore/Atlanta, Baltimore/Arizona, Houston/Atlanta, and Atlanta/Arizona.

So for the season I am now 9-17 on all of my plays, as I have gone 4-5 on my sides/straight plays and 5-12 on my teasers (all 2 teams, 6 points).  It is woth noting that I have only had two straight plays so far that were close (decided by 7 points or less ATS) and I lost both of those straight plays (Seattle +3 last week and Arizona -6/6.5 this week).

Since one will win 50% of his close straight plays in the long-run, I would be 5-4 on my straight plays this season if I had average luck, i.e. if I had split my close straight plays.  It is also worth noting that my poor record on my teaser plays so far this season is an aberration.  In fact, I have already lost more teaser plays so far this season (12) than I did during the entire season last year (10).  Last season I went a spectacular 36-10-3 (77.8%) on my teaser plays, and during my career I had gone a very stellar 296-207-4 (58-.8%) on them going into this season.

Take a look at my last week’s article, Week 3 NFL Recap.

However, even with my 5-12 start this season on teasers, I am still a very profitable 301-219-4 (57.9%) on them during the course of my entire NFL handicapping career. What is important to look at is a handicapper’s long-term record.  SInce 2006 (the year that launched my current website) I have gone a documented 784-604-41 (56.5%) on all of my NFL plays, which is well above the 52.38% winning percentage that one needs to attain in order to break even in the NFL in the long-run.

I am confident that I will probably overcome my slow start this season and turn things around soon.  If you have not already purchased one of my pick packages, you can get a week of my NFL picks for just $29, a month (effectively 5 weeks) of my picks for just $99, or you can get all of my NFL picks from now through the Super Bowl for just $269!  Since I figure to be profitable from this point going forward, purchasing one of my pick packages is definitely the smart thing to do if you haven´t done so already.

And on a final note, I must say something that many of you already know and many of you do not.  After having lived in beautiful Costa Rica for 9 1/2 years, I am moving to Chicago tomorrow (Tuesday).  I haven´t lived in Chicago for 2 decades+, but I am looking forward to once again living in Chi-town.  I might have a play on the Thursday night game, so stay posted.  I figure to release the bulk of my plays this week on Friday like usual, with a possibility that I will release some earlier than that and/or later than that.  Stay posted!

Steve ¨Cubby¨ Drumm – www.PickNFLWinners.com